Sunday, November 30, 2014

Very Hard to Kill Should be More than -1 to Roll … [Part 3/5: Analyzing the "Very Hard to Kill" Special Rule]

** PART 3/5 in the Hard to Kill Analysis Series **

The next rule up in the queue for the Hard to Kill series is the "Very Hard to Kill!" special rule. Under the basic rule set this one takes the "Hard to Kill!" rule and deducts 1 from the dice roll on the Hard to Kill table. This means that you could effectively never roll a natural 6 on turn one resulting in an insta-kill and rolling a 1 or 2 would result in effectively No Effect on the table. Ironically, this doesn't really increase the difficulty of killing the monster by very much. In fact, the average number of rounds to kill a "Very Hard to Kill!" monster over multiple runs using the simulator provided 3.6 rounds. Again, not very impressive for a monster that should be very hard to kill.

From part 2/5 of this series of posts, we found that a monster with the "Hard to Kill!" rule should need about 5-6 rounds to be killed. That would mean that the target for the "Very Hard to Kill!" should take more rounds than that … maybe something like 8 rounds would be about right. We updated the rule as follows and re-ran the simulator with these values:


The simulator provides 8.6 rounds for the average of this new table. That seems a lot better.


Now, the next question is … should this new version of the "Very Hard to Kill!" rule cost more than the base 10 points for a special rule? And if "yes", how much more exactly? Let's face off a monster with the "Very Hard to Kill!" rule against a large formation of infantry again to see how they both fare. I suggest a fight between Treebeard (230 Points) and two formations of 4 companies of Uruk-hai Warband (35 points per company = 280 Points).


STEP-BY-STEP EXAMPLE OF THE FIGHT

Round 1:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 1 and Isengard rolls a 2. Isengard Wins Priority for the Round.

Move Phase

Isengard stays where they are for the Move Phase, as does Treebeard.

Charge Phase

Isengard decides they want to charge, and takes their Courage Tests for Treebeard's Terror special rule. The first formation rolls a 2 and a 2. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 7, so the test is failed and the charge is stalled for Formation 1. The second formation rolls a 5 and a 6. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 14, so the test is passed.

Since the first Isengard formation failed its courage test, it cannot charge ... the charge is stalled!

The second Isengard formation rolls for their charge and rolls a 3, so the charge is successful.

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (even though he doesn't have priority because of Striking Order [pg 46] and he is Type: Monster). He rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value and 5 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus (Treebeard's Fight - Uruk-hai's Fight = 9-4 = 5). He needs 3+'s To Hit (S:9 vs D:7 - 66% chance To Hit) and since the warriors have only 1 Resilience, each hit ends up wounding a warrior. This means he gets 8 dice to roll: 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, & 3. This kills 6 Isengard Warriors.

Isengard now gets to attack. Formation #1 stalled and they are out of range. Formation #2, they roll 8 dice for the direct company and then 3 more dice for the three supporting companies and then they get a extra die for Charging. They need 6/2+'s To Hit (S:4 vs D:10). Rolling their 12 dice, they get: 4, 1, 6, 6, 3, 2, 2, 5, 6, 3, 5, & 1. Since they need 6/2's they pick up the three 6's that they rolled and re-roll them needing 2+'s, they get: 3, 2, & 1. So that means 2 hits (6/2's). Since Treebeard has 2 Resilience, these 2 hits are reduced to a single wound on Treebeard - This means one roll on the Very Hard to Kill table.

Rolling on the Very Hard to Kill table, Isengard Formation #2 rolls a 5. This adds one counters to Treebeard.

Fight Results

[** Recall that we modified the Determine Victor Rule back in Part 2/5 **] Treebeard inflicted 6 wounds. Isengard added 1 counter. This means that Treebeard wins the fight and Isengard Formation #2 has to fall back 1" and take a Panic Test. Formation #2 rolls a 6 and they remain Steadfast.

Round 2:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 5 and Isengard rolls a 4. Treebeard wins Priority for Round 2.

Move Phase

Treebeard stays where he is for the Move Phase, as do the Isengard Formations.

Charge Phase

Treebeard decides he want to charge, and rolls to charge Formation #2. He rolls a 3 - good. Formation #2 takes their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule. They roll a 1 and a 3. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 7, so the test is failed - this means that their Fight Value is reduced to 0 for Round 2.

Isengard Formation #1 is going to attempt to charge Treebeard, again. They take their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule, rolling: 5 & 5. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 13, so they pass - then they roll for their charge distance: 5, so it's good - both formations are in the fray this time!

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (he has priority and Striking Order). He decides he is going to continue to attack Formation #2 (they are Fight 0 for the round … so, of course) - so he rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, an additional die for Charging, and 9 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus (Treebeard's Fight - Uruk-hai's Fight = 9-0 = 9). He still needs 3+'s To Hit. This means he gets 13 dice to roll: 5, 1, 2, 3, 5, 2, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, & 2. This kills 8 Isengard Warriors - there goes the first company and only 2 remaining in the second supporting company.

Isengard now gets to attack. Formation #1 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and 3 more for the three supporting companies and then they get a extra die for Charging. They need 6/2+'s To Hit (S:4 vs D:10). Rolling their 12 dice, they get: 4, 3, 3, 2, 1, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 3, & 3. Since they need 6/2's they pick up the one 6 that they rolled and re-roll them needing 2+, they get: 4. So that means 1 hit (so far). Formation #2 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and 2 more for the two remaining support companies. Rolling their 10 dice, they get: 6, 5, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 6, 3, & 1. They pick up the three 6's they rolled and re-rolling them needing 2+'s, they get 3, 6, & 2. So 3 more hits. That means that Isengard got 4 total hits on Treebeard - and due to his Resilience of 2 they get to roll twice on the Very Hard to Kill table.

Rolling on the Very Hard to Kill table for the first wound, Isengard rolls a 6! Adding the one counter that is already on Treebeard means that they score an attack value of 7 on the table … this adds two more wound counters to Treebeard (now he has 3) - and since they rolled a 6, they get to re-roll!! They roll a 3 … adding the 3 counters on Treebeard give an attack value of 6 on the table … this adds one more wound counter to Treebeard (now he has 4). Now, for the second wound, the roll … ANOTHER 6 - wow! OK, adding the 4 wound counters - they have an attack value of 10 on the table … two more wound counters (now he has 6). They get to re-roll for the natural 6 … and they roll a 1. Again, adding the existing counters gives an attack value of 7 on the table … this adds two more counters to Treebeard - so he ends up with 8 counters on him at the end of Round 2.

Nice job Isengard dice rollers! [Just as a note … Under the old Very Hard to Kill rule - Treebeard would have already been dead …]

Fight Results

Well, that was a pretty bloody Round … Treebeard inflicted 8 wounds. Isengard added 7 counters. This means that Treebeard wins the fight (barely) and both Isengard Formations have to fall back 1" and take a Panic Test. Formation #1 rolls a 6 for their Panic Test and they remain Steadfast. Formation #2 rolls a 4 for their Panic Test - so all 3 companies in Formation #2 become Disordered. They then take their Courage Test to determine if they take additional casualties … they roll a 6 and a 6. Adding their Courage Value (3) they get a 15 … so the test is passed and no additional casualties.

Round 3:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 4 and Isengard rolls a 2. Treebeard wins Priority for Round 3.

Move Phase

Treebeard stays where he is for the Move Phase.

Isengard Formation #2 is Disordered, so they need to pass a Courage Test (with -1 since Treebeard is within 6" [pg 35]) in order to move, shoot, charge and get more than a single die per company for the Fight Phase. They roll a 3 & 6 - adding 3 for their Courage Value and subtracting 1 for Treebeard within 6", giving 11; (barely a pass) so Isengard Formation #2's companies are no longer Disordered. They choose to stay where they are for the Move Phase.

Charge Phase

Treebeard decides he want to charge, and rolls to charge Formation #2. He rolls a 4 - so good to go. Formation #2 takes their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule. They roll a 4 and a 6. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 13, so the test is passed.

Isengard Formation #1 is going to attempt to charge Treebeard, again. They take their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule, rolling: 2 & 6. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 11, so they pass - then they roll for their charge distance: 6, Unstoppable Charge!

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (he has priority and Striking Order). He decides he is going to continue to attack Formation #2 - so he rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, an additional die for Charging, and 5 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus. He still needs 3+'s To Hit. This means he gets 9 dice to roll: 3, 5, 4, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, & 5. This kills 8 Isengard Warriors - there goes the second company and only 2 remaining in the third supporting company - six more wounds and Formation #2 is done for.

Isengard now gets to attack. Formation #1 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and 3 more for the three supporting companies and then they get a 1+D3 extra die for Charging with an Unstoppable Charge (1 for Charging and D3 for Unstoppable). They roll a 2 for the Unstoppable charge - meaning they get one additional die for the charge. They need 6/2+'s To Hit (S:4 vs D:10). Rolling their 13 dice, they get: 1, 6, 3, 1, 5, 5, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 3, & 1. Since they need 6/2's they pick up the one 6 that they rolled and re-roll them needing 2+, they get: 3. So that means 1 hit (so far). Formation #2 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and 1 more for the remaining support company. Rolling their 9 dice, they get: 5, 5, 6, 1, 6, 3, 3, 4, & 6. They pick up the three 6's they rolled and re-rolling them needing 2+'s, they get 5, 5, & 1. So 2 more hits. That means that Isengard got 3 total hits on Treebeard - and due to his Resilience of 2 they get to roll once on the Very Hard to Kill table.

Rolling on the Very Hard to Kill table, Isengard rolls a 4! Adding the one counter that is already on Treebeard means that they score an attack value of 12 on the table … this adds three more wound counters to Treebeard (now he has 11 at the end of Round 3). This means that the next time that Isengard rolls on the Very Hard to Kill table, they need a 3 or more to get the required 14 to kill Treebeard … that's a 66.7% chance that he will die on the next table roll.

Fight Results

Treebeard inflicted 8 wounds. Isengard added 3 counters. This means that Treebeard wins the fight, again, and both Isengard Formations have to fall back 1" and take a Panic Test. Formation #1 rolls a 1 for their Panic Test and the experience an Onset of Dismay! [a banner would have been really useful right now …]. However, they have not taken any casualties yet, so they don't run away but simply become Disordered. They then take their Courage Test to determine if they take additional casualties … they roll a 1 and a 2. Adding their Courage Value (3) they get a 6 - meaning that they lose 4 warriors. Formation #2 rolls a 2 for their Panic Test and they become Disordered. They then take their Courage Test to determine if they take additional casualties … they roll a 6 and a 3. Adding their Courage Value (3) they get a 12 - meaning no more additional casualties for Formation #2 … that's good, they could not afford to lose anymore, really.

Round 4:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 6 and Isengard rolls a 6. Draw, so they need to re-roll. Treebeard rolls a 3 and Isengard rolls a 2. Treebeard wins Priority for Round 4.

Move Phase

Treebeard stays where he is for the Move Phase.

Both Isengard Formations are Disordered, so they need to pass a Courage Test (with -1 since Treebeard is within 6") in order to move, shoot, charge and get more than a single die per company for the Fight Phase. Isengard Formation #1 rolls a 4 & 6 - adding 3 for their Courage Value and subtracting 1 for Treebeard within 6", giving 12 - so they are no longer Disordered; Isengard Formation #2 rolls a 3 & 2 - adding 3 for their Courage Value and subtracting 1 for Treebeard within 6", giving 7 - so the two companies in Formation #2 remain Disordered - and they cannot move, shoot, or charge - and they will only get 2 dice total during the Fight Phase if engaged in hand-to-hand. Isengard Formation #1 chooses to stay where they are for the Move Phase and Formation #2 can't move since they are Disordered.

Charge Phase

Treebeard decides he want to charge, and rolls to charge Formation #2. He rolls a 5 - good. Formation #2 takes their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule. They roll a 4 and a 1. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 8, so the test is failed - this means that their Fight Value is reduced to 0 for Round 2. It looks like Formation #2 is in for it this round.

Isengard Formation #1 is going to attempt to charge Treebeard, again. They take their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule, rolling: 4 & 4. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 11, so they pass - then they roll for their charge distance: 1, STALLED CHARGE! I can hear Treebeard virtually laughing!

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (he has priority and Striking Order). He lays into Formation #2 - so he rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, an additional die for Charging, and 9 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus. He still needs 3+'s To Hit. This means he gets 13 dice to roll: 5, 3, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, & 1. This kills 8 Isengard Warriors - there goes Formation #2 … the remaining 2 warriors run for the hills!

Isengard has no one in contact with Treebeard, now, so there is no retaliation!

Fight Results

Treebeard wins - no need to check for Fight Results.

Round 5:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 3 and Isengard rolls a 3. Draw, so they need to re-roll. Treebeard rolls a 2 and Isengard rolls a 5. Isengard wins Priority for Round 5.

Move Phase

Isengard stays where they are for the Move Phase, as does Treebeard.

Charge Phase

Isengard decides they want to charge, and takes their Courage Tests for Treebeard's Terror special rule. The first formation rolls a 1 and a 1. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 5, so the test is failed and the charge is stalled for Formation 1. (LOL! - My Gondor Bias is chuckling at the random number generator … ha ha ha!) Stalled charge.

Treebeard charges, and rolls to charge Formation #1. He rolls a 4 - good. Formation #1 takes their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule. They roll a 3 and a 4. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 10, so the test is passed (again barely).

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (even though he does not have priority - due to Striking Order). He rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, an additional die for Charging, and 5 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus. He needs 3+'s To Hit. This means he gets 9 dice to roll: 3, 3, 4, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, & 5. This kills 8 Isengard Warriors - there goes the first company from Formation #1.

Isengard now gets to attack. Formation #1 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and only 2 more for the two remaining supporting companies (since Striking Order claimed its casualties already). They need 6/2+'s To Hit (S:4 vs D:10). Rolling their 10 dice, they get: 2, 2, 1, 6, 2, 6, 2, 1, 6, & 1. Since they need 6/2's they pick up the three 6's that they rolled and re-roll them needing 2+, they get:  6, 6, & 1. So 2 hits. That means due to Treebeard's Resilience of 2 they get to roll once on the Very Hard to Kill table.

Rolling on the Very Hard to Kill table, Isengard rolls a 6! Adding the 11 counters that are already on Treebeard means that Treebeard is slain on Round 5!!

Fight Results

Isengard wins - no need to check for Fight Results.

POST MORTEM ANALYSIS

Isengard is left with 105 Points worth of models after the fight (that is one formation comprised of three companies). And it looks like they good really lucky with their rolls on the Very Hard to Kill table (getting multiple 6's giving them the extra re-rolls). Looking at Treebeard's run … he was killing an entire company's worth of models each round … so he really only needed 2.5 more rounds to win … and if the extra rolls on the Very Hard to Kill table weren't there - or weren't as good - that could totally have panned out that way! Treebeard got to dish out 175 Points worth of damage before he was killed … still not too bad. As I mentioned above, if we had used the old version of the Very Hard to Kill Table, during Round 1 Isengard would have rolled their 5 … making it a 4 … giving Treebeard 2 counters right out the gate. Then on Round 2, Isengard would have rolled their 6 … making it a 5 … adding the 2 existing counter would be enough to kill Treebeard - and he would have only killed 14 warriors (only a single company from Formation #2) - effectively dealing only 35 Points worth of damage before he was killed.

It looks to me like we've got a pretty good balance with this new variation of the Very Hard to Kill Rule. What does everyone else think?


LINKS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE HARD TO KILL SERIES

  1. Overview of the Problem [Part 1/5]
  2. Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 2/5]
  3. Very Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 3/5]
  4. Extremely Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 4/5]
  5. Ridiculously Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 5/5]

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