Sunday, November 30, 2014

Very Hard to Kill Should be More than -1 to Roll … [Part 3/5: Analyzing the "Very Hard to Kill" Special Rule]

** PART 3/5 in the Hard to Kill Analysis Series **

The next rule up in the queue for the Hard to Kill series is the "Very Hard to Kill!" special rule. Under the basic rule set this one takes the "Hard to Kill!" rule and deducts 1 from the dice roll on the Hard to Kill table. This means that you could effectively never roll a natural 6 on turn one resulting in an insta-kill and rolling a 1 or 2 would result in effectively No Effect on the table. Ironically, this doesn't really increase the difficulty of killing the monster by very much. In fact, the average number of rounds to kill a "Very Hard to Kill!" monster over multiple runs using the simulator provided 3.6 rounds. Again, not very impressive for a monster that should be very hard to kill.

From part 2/5 of this series of posts, we found that a monster with the "Hard to Kill!" rule should need about 5-6 rounds to be killed. That would mean that the target for the "Very Hard to Kill!" should take more rounds than that … maybe something like 8 rounds would be about right. We updated the rule as follows and re-ran the simulator with these values:


The simulator provides 8.6 rounds for the average of this new table. That seems a lot better.


Now, the next question is … should this new version of the "Very Hard to Kill!" rule cost more than the base 10 points for a special rule? And if "yes", how much more exactly? Let's face off a monster with the "Very Hard to Kill!" rule against a large formation of infantry again to see how they both fare. I suggest a fight between Treebeard (230 Points) and two formations of 4 companies of Uruk-hai Warband (35 points per company = 280 Points).


STEP-BY-STEP EXAMPLE OF THE FIGHT

Round 1:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 1 and Isengard rolls a 2. Isengard Wins Priority for the Round.

Move Phase

Isengard stays where they are for the Move Phase, as does Treebeard.

Charge Phase

Isengard decides they want to charge, and takes their Courage Tests for Treebeard's Terror special rule. The first formation rolls a 2 and a 2. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 7, so the test is failed and the charge is stalled for Formation 1. The second formation rolls a 5 and a 6. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 14, so the test is passed.

Since the first Isengard formation failed its courage test, it cannot charge ... the charge is stalled!

The second Isengard formation rolls for their charge and rolls a 3, so the charge is successful.

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (even though he doesn't have priority because of Striking Order [pg 46] and he is Type: Monster). He rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value and 5 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus (Treebeard's Fight - Uruk-hai's Fight = 9-4 = 5). He needs 3+'s To Hit (S:9 vs D:7 - 66% chance To Hit) and since the warriors have only 1 Resilience, each hit ends up wounding a warrior. This means he gets 8 dice to roll: 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, & 3. This kills 6 Isengard Warriors.

Isengard now gets to attack. Formation #1 stalled and they are out of range. Formation #2, they roll 8 dice for the direct company and then 3 more dice for the three supporting companies and then they get a extra die for Charging. They need 6/2+'s To Hit (S:4 vs D:10). Rolling their 12 dice, they get: 4, 1, 6, 6, 3, 2, 2, 5, 6, 3, 5, & 1. Since they need 6/2's they pick up the three 6's that they rolled and re-roll them needing 2+'s, they get: 3, 2, & 1. So that means 2 hits (6/2's). Since Treebeard has 2 Resilience, these 2 hits are reduced to a single wound on Treebeard - This means one roll on the Very Hard to Kill table.

Rolling on the Very Hard to Kill table, Isengard Formation #2 rolls a 5. This adds one counters to Treebeard.

Fight Results

[** Recall that we modified the Determine Victor Rule back in Part 2/5 **] Treebeard inflicted 6 wounds. Isengard added 1 counter. This means that Treebeard wins the fight and Isengard Formation #2 has to fall back 1" and take a Panic Test. Formation #2 rolls a 6 and they remain Steadfast.

Round 2:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 5 and Isengard rolls a 4. Treebeard wins Priority for Round 2.

Move Phase

Treebeard stays where he is for the Move Phase, as do the Isengard Formations.

Charge Phase

Treebeard decides he want to charge, and rolls to charge Formation #2. He rolls a 3 - good. Formation #2 takes their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule. They roll a 1 and a 3. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 7, so the test is failed - this means that their Fight Value is reduced to 0 for Round 2.

Isengard Formation #1 is going to attempt to charge Treebeard, again. They take their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule, rolling: 5 & 5. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 13, so they pass - then they roll for their charge distance: 5, so it's good - both formations are in the fray this time!

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (he has priority and Striking Order). He decides he is going to continue to attack Formation #2 (they are Fight 0 for the round … so, of course) - so he rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, an additional die for Charging, and 9 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus (Treebeard's Fight - Uruk-hai's Fight = 9-0 = 9). He still needs 3+'s To Hit. This means he gets 13 dice to roll: 5, 1, 2, 3, 5, 2, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, & 2. This kills 8 Isengard Warriors - there goes the first company and only 2 remaining in the second supporting company.

Isengard now gets to attack. Formation #1 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and 3 more for the three supporting companies and then they get a extra die for Charging. They need 6/2+'s To Hit (S:4 vs D:10). Rolling their 12 dice, they get: 4, 3, 3, 2, 1, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 3, & 3. Since they need 6/2's they pick up the one 6 that they rolled and re-roll them needing 2+, they get: 4. So that means 1 hit (so far). Formation #2 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and 2 more for the two remaining support companies. Rolling their 10 dice, they get: 6, 5, 1, 2, 2, 4, 6, 6, 3, & 1. They pick up the three 6's they rolled and re-rolling them needing 2+'s, they get 3, 6, & 2. So 3 more hits. That means that Isengard got 4 total hits on Treebeard - and due to his Resilience of 2 they get to roll twice on the Very Hard to Kill table.

Rolling on the Very Hard to Kill table for the first wound, Isengard rolls a 6! Adding the one counter that is already on Treebeard means that they score an attack value of 7 on the table … this adds two more wound counters to Treebeard (now he has 3) - and since they rolled a 6, they get to re-roll!! They roll a 3 … adding the 3 counters on Treebeard give an attack value of 6 on the table … this adds one more wound counter to Treebeard (now he has 4). Now, for the second wound, the roll … ANOTHER 6 - wow! OK, adding the 4 wound counters - they have an attack value of 10 on the table … two more wound counters (now he has 6). They get to re-roll for the natural 6 … and they roll a 1. Again, adding the existing counters gives an attack value of 7 on the table … this adds two more counters to Treebeard - so he ends up with 8 counters on him at the end of Round 2.

Nice job Isengard dice rollers! [Just as a note … Under the old Very Hard to Kill rule - Treebeard would have already been dead …]

Fight Results

Well, that was a pretty bloody Round … Treebeard inflicted 8 wounds. Isengard added 7 counters. This means that Treebeard wins the fight (barely) and both Isengard Formations have to fall back 1" and take a Panic Test. Formation #1 rolls a 6 for their Panic Test and they remain Steadfast. Formation #2 rolls a 4 for their Panic Test - so all 3 companies in Formation #2 become Disordered. They then take their Courage Test to determine if they take additional casualties … they roll a 6 and a 6. Adding their Courage Value (3) they get a 15 … so the test is passed and no additional casualties.

Round 3:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 4 and Isengard rolls a 2. Treebeard wins Priority for Round 3.

Move Phase

Treebeard stays where he is for the Move Phase.

Isengard Formation #2 is Disordered, so they need to pass a Courage Test (with -1 since Treebeard is within 6" [pg 35]) in order to move, shoot, charge and get more than a single die per company for the Fight Phase. They roll a 3 & 6 - adding 3 for their Courage Value and subtracting 1 for Treebeard within 6", giving 11; (barely a pass) so Isengard Formation #2's companies are no longer Disordered. They choose to stay where they are for the Move Phase.

Charge Phase

Treebeard decides he want to charge, and rolls to charge Formation #2. He rolls a 4 - so good to go. Formation #2 takes their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule. They roll a 4 and a 6. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 13, so the test is passed.

Isengard Formation #1 is going to attempt to charge Treebeard, again. They take their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule, rolling: 2 & 6. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 11, so they pass - then they roll for their charge distance: 6, Unstoppable Charge!

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (he has priority and Striking Order). He decides he is going to continue to attack Formation #2 - so he rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, an additional die for Charging, and 5 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus. He still needs 3+'s To Hit. This means he gets 9 dice to roll: 3, 5, 4, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, & 5. This kills 8 Isengard Warriors - there goes the second company and only 2 remaining in the third supporting company - six more wounds and Formation #2 is done for.

Isengard now gets to attack. Formation #1 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and 3 more for the three supporting companies and then they get a 1+D3 extra die for Charging with an Unstoppable Charge (1 for Charging and D3 for Unstoppable). They roll a 2 for the Unstoppable charge - meaning they get one additional die for the charge. They need 6/2+'s To Hit (S:4 vs D:10). Rolling their 13 dice, they get: 1, 6, 3, 1, 5, 5, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 3, & 1. Since they need 6/2's they pick up the one 6 that they rolled and re-roll them needing 2+, they get: 3. So that means 1 hit (so far). Formation #2 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and 1 more for the remaining support company. Rolling their 9 dice, they get: 5, 5, 6, 1, 6, 3, 3, 4, & 6. They pick up the three 6's they rolled and re-rolling them needing 2+'s, they get 5, 5, & 1. So 2 more hits. That means that Isengard got 3 total hits on Treebeard - and due to his Resilience of 2 they get to roll once on the Very Hard to Kill table.

Rolling on the Very Hard to Kill table, Isengard rolls a 4! Adding the one counter that is already on Treebeard means that they score an attack value of 12 on the table … this adds three more wound counters to Treebeard (now he has 11 at the end of Round 3). This means that the next time that Isengard rolls on the Very Hard to Kill table, they need a 3 or more to get the required 14 to kill Treebeard … that's a 66.7% chance that he will die on the next table roll.

Fight Results

Treebeard inflicted 8 wounds. Isengard added 3 counters. This means that Treebeard wins the fight, again, and both Isengard Formations have to fall back 1" and take a Panic Test. Formation #1 rolls a 1 for their Panic Test and the experience an Onset of Dismay! [a banner would have been really useful right now …]. However, they have not taken any casualties yet, so they don't run away but simply become Disordered. They then take their Courage Test to determine if they take additional casualties … they roll a 1 and a 2. Adding their Courage Value (3) they get a 6 - meaning that they lose 4 warriors. Formation #2 rolls a 2 for their Panic Test and they become Disordered. They then take their Courage Test to determine if they take additional casualties … they roll a 6 and a 3. Adding their Courage Value (3) they get a 12 - meaning no more additional casualties for Formation #2 … that's good, they could not afford to lose anymore, really.

Round 4:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 6 and Isengard rolls a 6. Draw, so they need to re-roll. Treebeard rolls a 3 and Isengard rolls a 2. Treebeard wins Priority for Round 4.

Move Phase

Treebeard stays where he is for the Move Phase.

Both Isengard Formations are Disordered, so they need to pass a Courage Test (with -1 since Treebeard is within 6") in order to move, shoot, charge and get more than a single die per company for the Fight Phase. Isengard Formation #1 rolls a 4 & 6 - adding 3 for their Courage Value and subtracting 1 for Treebeard within 6", giving 12 - so they are no longer Disordered; Isengard Formation #2 rolls a 3 & 2 - adding 3 for their Courage Value and subtracting 1 for Treebeard within 6", giving 7 - so the two companies in Formation #2 remain Disordered - and they cannot move, shoot, or charge - and they will only get 2 dice total during the Fight Phase if engaged in hand-to-hand. Isengard Formation #1 chooses to stay where they are for the Move Phase and Formation #2 can't move since they are Disordered.

Charge Phase

Treebeard decides he want to charge, and rolls to charge Formation #2. He rolls a 5 - good. Formation #2 takes their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule. They roll a 4 and a 1. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 8, so the test is failed - this means that their Fight Value is reduced to 0 for Round 2. It looks like Formation #2 is in for it this round.

Isengard Formation #1 is going to attempt to charge Treebeard, again. They take their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule, rolling: 4 & 4. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 11, so they pass - then they roll for their charge distance: 1, STALLED CHARGE! I can hear Treebeard virtually laughing!

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (he has priority and Striking Order). He lays into Formation #2 - so he rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, an additional die for Charging, and 9 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus. He still needs 3+'s To Hit. This means he gets 13 dice to roll: 5, 3, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, & 1. This kills 8 Isengard Warriors - there goes Formation #2 … the remaining 2 warriors run for the hills!

Isengard has no one in contact with Treebeard, now, so there is no retaliation!

Fight Results

Treebeard wins - no need to check for Fight Results.

Round 5:

Priority Phase

Treebeard rolls a 3 and Isengard rolls a 3. Draw, so they need to re-roll. Treebeard rolls a 2 and Isengard rolls a 5. Isengard wins Priority for Round 5.

Move Phase

Isengard stays where they are for the Move Phase, as does Treebeard.

Charge Phase

Isengard decides they want to charge, and takes their Courage Tests for Treebeard's Terror special rule. The first formation rolls a 1 and a 1. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 5, so the test is failed and the charge is stalled for Formation 1. (LOL! - My Gondor Bias is chuckling at the random number generator … ha ha ha!) Stalled charge.

Treebeard charges, and rolls to charge Formation #1. He rolls a 4 - good. Formation #1 takes their Courage Test for Treebeard's Terror special rule. They roll a 3 and a 4. Adding their Courage Value (3) it totals 10, so the test is passed (again barely).

Fight Phase

Treebeard gets to attack first (even though he does not have priority - due to Striking Order). He rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, an additional die for Charging, and 5 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus. He needs 3+'s To Hit. This means he gets 9 dice to roll: 3, 3, 4, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, & 5. This kills 8 Isengard Warriors - there goes the first company from Formation #1.

Isengard now gets to attack. Formation #1 rolls 8 dice for the direct company and only 2 more for the two remaining supporting companies (since Striking Order claimed its casualties already). They need 6/2+'s To Hit (S:4 vs D:10). Rolling their 10 dice, they get: 2, 2, 1, 6, 2, 6, 2, 1, 6, & 1. Since they need 6/2's they pick up the three 6's that they rolled and re-roll them needing 2+, they get:  6, 6, & 1. So 2 hits. That means due to Treebeard's Resilience of 2 they get to roll once on the Very Hard to Kill table.

Rolling on the Very Hard to Kill table, Isengard rolls a 6! Adding the 11 counters that are already on Treebeard means that Treebeard is slain on Round 5!!

Fight Results

Isengard wins - no need to check for Fight Results.

POST MORTEM ANALYSIS

Isengard is left with 105 Points worth of models after the fight (that is one formation comprised of three companies). And it looks like they good really lucky with their rolls on the Very Hard to Kill table (getting multiple 6's giving them the extra re-rolls). Looking at Treebeard's run … he was killing an entire company's worth of models each round … so he really only needed 2.5 more rounds to win … and if the extra rolls on the Very Hard to Kill table weren't there - or weren't as good - that could totally have panned out that way! Treebeard got to dish out 175 Points worth of damage before he was killed … still not too bad. As I mentioned above, if we had used the old version of the Very Hard to Kill Table, during Round 1 Isengard would have rolled their 5 … making it a 4 … giving Treebeard 2 counters right out the gate. Then on Round 2, Isengard would have rolled their 6 … making it a 5 … adding the 2 existing counter would be enough to kill Treebeard - and he would have only killed 14 warriors (only a single company from Formation #2) - effectively dealing only 35 Points worth of damage before he was killed.

It looks to me like we've got a pretty good balance with this new variation of the Very Hard to Kill Rule. What does everyone else think?


LINKS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE HARD TO KILL SERIES

  1. Overview of the Problem [Part 1/5]
  2. Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 2/5]
  3. Very Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 3/5]
  4. Extremely Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 4/5]
  5. Ridiculously Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 5/5]

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

The Forgotten Kingdoms Unit Cost Analysis - Good's Use of the Monster Hero Profile

I think we have a pretty good baseline, now, with the profile posts we have analyzed so far. Next up is The Forgotten Kingdoms. We have already seen the Monster Hero profile working within the Mordor analysis, and now it is the Good Guy's turn to "monster it up".

THE FORGOTTEN KINGDOMS WARRIORS


I'm not sure if anyone has noticed this before, but there are only 4 companies of Warriors available to this army:
  • Hobbit Militia
  • Hobbit Archer Militia
  • Wardens of the Carrock
  • Woses Warband
It seems like this army was intended mostly to be used as Allies for other armies, and not necessarily its own stand alone army ... well, I guess that's not entirely true - you could field an army of Monsters and just storm around ... and now that we have "fixed" the "Hard to Kill!" rule, that might actually be more viable. It would be interesting to see a fielded 1500 Point Forgotten Kingdoms Army comprised of Hobbits (there would be a TON of them) and Monsters - but could you imagine forking out all the money needed to buy Hobbit Miniatures?!?

THE FORGOTTEN KINGDOMS WARMACHINES


Cost 5 Monsters:
  • Ent
Cost 6 Monster Heroes:
  • Great Eagle
  • Tom Bombadil
Cost 7 Monster Heroes:
  • Quickbeam
  • Beechbone
Cost 10 Monster Heroes:
  • Treebeard
  • The Three Hunters
  • Gwaihir
  • The Fellowship of the Ring
  • The White Council
  • Council of Wizardry
Keys:
(C) = Common Formation, (R) = Rare Formation, (L) = Legendary Formation
[I] = Infantry, [H] = Cavalry, [A] = Artillery, [M] = "Monster", [MH] = "Monster Hero"
  • (L) [MH] The Three Hunters - Underpriced by 34%
  • (L) [MH] Beechbone - Underpriced by 16%
  • (L) [MH] Quickbeam - Underpriced by 14%
  • (L) [MH] Gwaihir - Underpriced by 11%
  • (L) [I] Wardens of the Carrock - Underpriced by 10%
  • (C) [MH] Great Eagle - Underpriced by 10%
  • (L) [MH] Council of Wizardry - Underpriced by 8%
  • (L) [MH] Treebeard - Underpriced by 2%
  • (C) [M] Ent - Accurately Priced (0% deviation)
  • (L) [I] Woses Warband - Accurately Priced (0% deviation)
  • (L) [MH] The White Council - Overpriced by 8%
  • (L) [MH] The Fellowship of the Ring - Overpriced by 11%
  • (C) [I] Hobbit Militia - Overpriced by 100%
  • (L) [MH] Tom Bombadil - Overpriced by 111%
  • (C) [I] Hobbit Archer Militia - Overpriced by 200%
Wow, Hello Legendary Monster Heroes for cheap! Obviously if you want to play a lot of big monsters on the good side - this is definitely your army!

Applying the template from cheapest (weakest stat-wise) to most expensive (most powerful) gives:
  • 5 Points per Company:
    • (C) [I] Hobbit Militia
    • (C) [I] Hobbit Archer Militia
  • 25 Points per Company:
    • (L) [I] Woses Warband
  • 50 Points per Company:
    • (L) [I] Wardens of the Carrock
  • 95 Points:
    • (L) [MH] Tom Bombadil
  • 125 Points:
    • (C) [M] Ent
  • 155 Points:
    • (C) [MH] Great Eagle
  • 160 Points:
    • (L) [MH] Beechbone
  • 175 Points:
    • (L) [MH] Quickbeam
  • 225 Points:
    • (L) [MH] Gwaihir
  • 230 Points:
    • (L) [MH] Treebeard
  • 265 Points:
    • (L) [MH] The Three Hunters
  • 450 Points:
    • (L) [MH] The Fellowship of the Ring
  • 465 Points:
    • (L) [MH] The White Council
  • 545 Points:
    • (L) [MH] Council of Wizardry
Ahh, yes - much better! That makes a lot more sense seeing it laid out this way!


THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING UPGRADE

The upgrade that is available to The Fellowship of the Ring is Bill the Pony. Reading the special rule associated to Bill the Pony, he is basically an Epic Hornblower. We think that this upgrade should cost a total of 15 Points since all it does is provide a Move Value increase of +2 for a single company. Looking at the Hero Baseline Profile each point of Move Value would cost +/- 5 points (thus 10 Points for the +2 Move Value points and 5 because it is an upgrade).

A NOTE ON GWAIHIR

It seems like whenever there is a Monster Hero that is worthy of being a "leader of monsters" (e.g., Treebeard or Mordor Troll Chieftain) they come along with a "<Race> Charge" special rule that applies to the race of which they are a member. It would make sense for Gwaihir to have the "Eagle Charge" special rule as well [in fact we have already included that in his cost above].


THE FORGOTTEN KINGDOMS HEROES

Key: (C) = Command Hero, (L) = Legendary Hero, (E) = Epic Hero
  • (E) Radagast the Brown - Underpriced by 33%
  • (E) Saruman the White - Underpriced by 31%
  • (L) Grimbeorn - Underpriced by 29%
  • (E) Gandalf the Grey - Underpriced by 27%
  • (L) Ghan-buri-ghan - Underpriced by 12%
  • (E) Gandalf the White - Underpriced by 2%
  • (C) Civic Leader HAM - Overpriced by 150%
  • (C) Civic Leader HM - Overpriced by 233%
Sorting by the cost calculated by the template from cheapest (weakest stat-wise) to most expensive (most powerful) - of course, all the awesome characters (Epic Heroes) are now at the bottom of the list … most powerful and most expensive (as we have seen time-and-again):
  • Heroes that should cost 15 Points:
    • (C) Civic Leader HM
  • Heroes that should cost 20 Points:
    • (C) Civic Leader HAM
  • Heroes that should cost 85 Points:
    • (L) Grimbeorn
    • (L) Ghan-buri-ghan
  • Heroes that should cost 240 Points:
    • (E) Radagast the Brown
  • Heroes that should cost 275 Points:
    • (E) Gandalf the Grey
  • Heroes that should cost 290 Points:
    • (E) Saruman the White
  • Heroes that should cost 305 Points:
    • (E) Gandalf the White


      Monday, November 24, 2014

      Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Movement of Infantry Formations Comprised of 2-3 Companies [Part 2/23]

      MOVEMENT TYPE 3: RECONFIGURATION MOVEMENT

      Any time that a formation is comprised of more than a single company it has the potential to reconfigure the companies within the formation into a new configuration. Some configurations are more strategically advantageous while others are more efficient for mobilization or dealing more direct damage to an opponent.

      Within the current rule baseline, GW basically considers this type of movement to be effectively "free". For example, here is a snippet of the rules from page 32:


      Ironically, right after specifying the rule as written above, within the caption for the image at the bottom of page 33 they immediately put another "informal rule" on the reconfiguration movement:


      It seems that they intended reconfiguration to be part of the Move cost, but didn't have a good way of measuring the movement other than saying that no individual company can move further than their individual Move Value.

      It looks to me like there wasn't much more than a passing thought put into the implications of this type of movement and what it would impact and how people would try to play it. In fact, they just try to glaze over all the types of movement by simply putting in an over-arching rule on page 32:


      That's actually easier said then done ... especially if the formation has more than 4 companies within it! The difficulty arises when trying to keep all those movements in your mind and make sure that none of them break the rules. There have been several instances when I have attempted to move a formation and one of the companies broke the Move Value and then I tried to "put them back in their original position" to try to do it again!

      In fact, we have found that the easiest way to move a formation is by first reconfiguring the formation to the desired configuration (up to the maximum move distance available to the formation), second deducting the cost of the reconfiguration from the total Move Value to determine the remaining available distance, third rotating the formation to the desired angle about the center of the formation (up to the remaining maximum move distance available to the formation), fourth deducting the cost of the rotation from the remaining available distance, fifth traversing the formation in a straight line to the desired final location (up to the remaining maximum move distance available to the formation).

      Now for the "nitty-gritty" detail of reconfiguration movement...

      The distance consumed via reconfiguration movement is highly dependent upon the base size of the companies, the current configuration, and number of companies within the formation. In fact, if the formation has a lot of companies within it, it will be substantially more expensive to reconfigure than a formation that only has 2. Also, the more companies within a formation the more permutations of reconfigurations are available - giving multiple cases that need to be considered for each variation of those permutations (no wonder GW did not try to go down this path, lol). Starting with the easiest case available - a formation of infantry comprised of 2 companies. There are only 2 possible permutations of configurations of which these 2 companies can comprise. (Note in each of these examples, company #1 is the command company that would hold heroes, banners, hornblowers, etc…). I have noticed that it is often useful to have a copy of the most common reconfiguration maximums so that I can quick reference them when taking my Move Phase - maybe I will include a cheat sheet for that at then end of these posts.

      One thing to keep in mind is that the formation as a whole inherits the most expensive move for each company within the formation. That is to say, since company 2 has moved via the reconfiguration 4.93" already that means he only has 1.07" of movement remaining - and even though company 1 has not moved any distance, he must remain with the rest of the formation and cannot move more than 1.07", either - the most expensive move of 4.93" is inherited to company 1. Suddenly, the extra 1" move bonus from horn blowers is seeming more-and-more useful.

      I think a lot of the confusion for the standard GW rules comes from the fact that players only consider forward motion to count against the Move Value; however, since the reconfiguration keeps the command company in place and the other companies are the ones that are "doing the movement", they actually contribute to "backward" movement first and then the remaining movement can be used for rotation or translational movements.

      Considering what we have above, here. If the player had a formation of Minas Tirith Archers that were in the 1x2 configuration (the one on the bottom of the picture) and they wanted to maximize the number of archers that could shoot during the Shoot Phase (i.e., if they were in the 1x2 configuration then company 2 would be support and not direct meaning 9 dice to roll - but if they are in the 2x1 configuration on top then all archers can contribute meaning 18 dice to roll!) But look - the rules say that if a company moves more than 1/2 its Move Value during the Move Phase, they cannot shoot … and reconfiguring from 1x2 --> 2x1 for the archers requires a 4.93" of their 6.0" move … meaning that they cannot reconfigure and shoot during the same round! This puts a new spin on things - considering that it slows down the game and requires more strategic planning for formations' configurations. In fact, it almost makes sense to arrange archers in the nx1 configuration during deployment since reconfiguring could require multiple rounds to get flat again.

      For formations comprised of 3 companies there are three permutations of configurations that can exist. Let's go through each of these three individually (Case 3-1, Case 3-2 and Case 3-3).



      So, for Case 3-1 it appears that the worst case movement is Company 3. So reconfiguring in this fashion would require a Move of 4.93".
      



      For Case 3-2, the worst case is Company 2 ... so again this would require 4.93" of the Move Value to perform this reconfiguration.



      Now, this is interesting ... in order to reconfigure from 1x3 <--> 3x1 the distance required for the reconfiguration movement of Company 3 is 6.41"! This means that this type of reconfiguration movement is not possible for a formation of 3 companies that does not have a hero that can call "At the Double!" or a Heroic Move (they simply do not have enough Move Value to perform this reconfiguration - and they would have to do two separate reconfigurations over two rounds [reconfiguring via case 3-1 first round and then via case 3-2 on the second round).

      As you can guess - the necessity of requiring "At the Double!" or a Heroic Move is only going to get more common with the larger formations comprised of 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or even 9 companies!

      INFANTRY RECONFIGURATION SUMMARY (thus far)


      GOING FORWARD

      In part 3 I will cover another set of the infantry formation permutations (probably 4 and 5 companies per formation) and then in 4 I will cover 6 infantry companies in formation and look closely at the examples provided on page 33 of the book. Then 5 and 6 will probably be covering cavalry formations and their Reconfiguration Movement Limits.


      LINKS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE WFMC PROGRESS SERIES


        LINKS TO OTHER PARTS OF MOVEMENT TYPES AND LIMITS SERIES




        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Movement of Cavalry Formations Comprised of 2-3 Companies [Part 11/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Movement of Cavalry Formations Comprised for 4 Companies [Part 12/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Movement of Cavalry Formations Comprised of 5 Companies [Part 13/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Movement of Cavalry Formations Comprised of 6 Companies [Part 14/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Movement of Cavalry Formations Comprised of 7 Companies [Part 15/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Movement of Cavalry Formations Comprised of 8 Companies [Part 16/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Movement of Infantry Formations Comprised of 9 Companies [Part 17/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Cavalry Movement Example 1 from Page 33 of WotR Rulebook Analysis [Part 18/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Cavalry Movement Example 2 from Page 33 of WotR Rulebook Analysis [Part 19/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Cavalry Movement Example 3 from Page 33 of WotR Rulebook Analysis [Part 20/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Reconfiguration Summary of Cavalry Formations by Company Size [Part 21/23]
        • Movement Types and Limits Series - Cavalry Restrictions of Reconfiguration by Formation Name Summary [Part 22/23]
        • Using WFMC to Verify Movement Examples [Part 23/23]

        Wednesday, November 19, 2014

        Yeah, Not Really that "Hard to Kill" Series [Part 2/5: Analyzing the "Hard to Kill" Special Rule]

        ** PART 2/5 in the Hard to Kill Analysis Series **

        I was curious if the poor Mordor Troll from the previous post had any chance what-so-ever to win the fight. The points have been normalized based upon the template to make sure that they are evenly priced, and since the Mordor Troll is just a single Monster the only things that could be adjusted to "fix" the imbalance between the two formations would be the following: 1) Increase the number of Attacks that the Mordor Troll has - this would allow him to kill more Warriors each Fight Phase. 2) Increase the number of Resilience Points that the Mordor Troll has - this would discount more hits from the Warriors during the Fight Phase. 3) Adjust the "Hard to Kill!" special rule to eliminate the one-shot-kill capability and actually make the rule live up to its "advertised name".
         The problem with the first 2 options is that making these changes would impact the point cost of the model, since upping either the attacks or the resilience would effectively add 5 points for each increase - so it seems like the logical change would be to re-baseline the "Hard to Kill!" special rule to balance it with the Gondor Warriors to bring it more in line with probability of winning/losing 50%.

        Secondly, there is a problem with a few particular rules in the Fight Phase - "Determine Victor" and "Monsters and Retreats" (see pages 50 & 51). The way the rules are currently written would imply that a Formation with the "Hard to Kill!" special rule would always automatically be the victor of a fight and only need to test for Panic if in a multiple fight.


        Here is the recommended changes that we have proposed:


        By adjusting the rules above, this ensures that a Monster can still "lose a Fight" and as such move back 1" from the victor, but it will never become Disordered unless participating in a Multiple Fight with other formations in the Army.

        I wrote up a simulator in Xcode using Objective-C (included below at the end of the post) to attempt to model several rolls on the Hard to Kill Table in order to see how long it would take on average to obtain the kill result for a Monster.


        I was actually surprised when after 10 runs on the table it was taking on average only 2.1 rolls on the table to kill via "Death Blow" the model. After going through the output, the "best" (longest living) run that the Troll had was 4 rolls on the table (during Fight 9).

        I also wanted to see what would happen taking into consideration the other rule of Terror, just to make sure that that wasn't a swaying factor; but that will require coding up more of the Fight Phase into the simulator than just the roll on the Hard to Kill table ... I think that may have to wait for a future post. Here's an idea - let's use code to generate random numbers (simulating un-biased dice rolls) - and we can for now manually step through the example to see what is going on ...

        STEP-BY-STEP EXAMPLE OF THE FIGHT

        Round 1:


        Priority Phase

        Gondor rolls a 5 and Mordor rolls a 4. Gondor Wins Priority for the Round.

        Move Phase

        Gondor stays where they are for the Move Phase, as does the Mordor Troll.



        Charge Phase

        Gondor decides they want to charge, and takes their Courage Test for the Troll's Terror special rule. They roll a 3 and a 5. Adding their Courage Value they total 11, so the test is passed.








        Gondor rolls for the charge and rolls a 1 ... the charge is stalled!










        Mordor rolls for their charge and rolls a 5, so the charge is successful.









        Gondor takes another Courage Test for the Troll's Terror special rule, since they are being charged. They roll a 4 and a 6. Adding their Courage Value they total 13, the test is passed again.






        Fight Phase

        The Mordor Troll gets to attack first (even through he doesn't have priority - but because of Striking Order (pg 46) and he is Type: Monster). He rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, rolls an additional die for Charging, and 4 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus. He needs 4+'s To Hit and since the warriors have only 1 Resilience, each hit ends up wounding a warrior. This kills 6 Gondor Warriors.




        Gondor now gets to attack. They roll 8 dice for the direct company and then 3 more dice for the three supporting companies. They need 6's To Hit and get 2x 6's. Since the Troll has 2 Resilience, these 2 hits are reduced to a single wound on the Troll - This means one roll on the Hard to Kill table.







        Rolling on the Hard to Kill table, Gondor rolls a 5. This adds two counters to the Troll. [Note: If the Gondor Formation would have had a Hero with a single point of Might - this could have been adjusted to a 6 ... killing the Troll.]





        Fight Results

        [** See the note above on the Determine Victor Rule **] Mordor inflicted 6 wounds. Gondor added 2 counters. Mordor wins the fight. Gondor has to fall back 1" and take a Panic Test. They roll a 2 and each company becomes Disordered. They take their Courage Test to determine if there will be additional casualties, they roll a 7 and adding their Courage Value means that they lose no additional warriors. [Note: The Gondor Formation is 18.7% depleted - at this rate it'll take 5 Rounds to destroy the Formation; also the Troll has a 50% chance of dying on the next roll on the Hard to Kill table.]

        Round 2:




        Priority Phase

        Gondor rolls a 6 and Mordor rolls a 3. Gondor Wins Priority again for the Round.





         Move Phase

        Gondor is Disordered, so they need to pass a Courage Test (with -1 since the Troll is within 6" [pg 35]) in order to move, shoot, charge and get more than a single die per company for the Fight Phase (this could be detrimental against the Resilience 2 of the Troll, since if they don't get more than one 6 the hit will be absorbed). They roll an 8 on the dice adding 3 for their Courage Value and subtracting 1 for the Troll within 6", giving 10; (barely a pass) so the Formation is no longer disordered.

        Gondor stays where they are for the Move Phase, as does the Mordor Troll.


        Charge Phase

        Gondor decides they want to charge, and takes their Courage Test for the Troll's Terror special rule, again. They roll a 2 and a 3. Adding their Courage Value they total 8, so the test is failed and the charge is stalled.










        Mordor rolls for their charge and rolls a 5, so the charge is successful.








        Gondor takes another Courage Test for the Troll's Terror special rule, since they are being charged. They roll a 4 and a 2. Adding their Courage Value they total 9, the test is failed again. Their Fight Value is reduced to 0 for the turn.





        Fight Phase

        The Mordor Troll gets to attack first (even through he doesn't have priority - but because of Striking Order and he is Type: Monster). He rolls 3 dice for his Attack Value, rolls an additional die for Charging, and 7 additional dice for his Battle Skill bonus (that is 11 total dice). He needs 4+'s To Hit and since the warriors have only 1 Resilience, each hit ends up wounding a warrior. This kills 4 Gondor Warriors (and finally gets rid of the first company).





        Gondor now gets to attack. They roll 8 dice for the direct company and then 2 more dice for the two supporting companies. They need 6's To Hit and get 3x 6's. Since the Troll has 2 Resilience, these 3 hits are reduced to a single wound on the Troll - This means one roll on the Hard to Kill table.





        Rolling on the Hard to Kill table, Gondor rolls a 4. Adding the two counters that are already on the Troll gives a result of 6 on the table - killing the Troll, delivering the "Death Blow".

        Well - it was consistent ... it took 2 Rounds for the Troll to be killed. That is well within the one standard deviation of the 2.1 statistical average. Furthermore, Gondor took 31.2% damage to the Formation; so just under a third - which would imply it would take 5 turns still to destroy the Formation for the Troll ...

        So, long-story-short, something needs to be done to adjust the Hard to Kill! special rule of the Troll to increase his survivability and make the fight a little more even (45%/55% in favor of the Troll - that's pretty "hard").

        Honestly, I am somewhat surprised the level of change that the Terror rule brought into the fight ... even though I have fought against terror causing formations in the past, I guess I never really thought about the number of Courage Test rolls I was required to make until I saw it laid out sequentially.

        Using the H2K simulator to run the average number of turns to kill the Troll we should be targeting it right around the 6.0 turn mark. That will make it difficult (hence the hard part of Hard to Kill!) to kill the Troll. Having it average at about the 5.0 turn mark should result in the 50/50 distribution that should already exist (without the special rule) and having it average at about the 7.0 turn mark would sway it too much in favor of the Troll ... making the Troll too hard to kill (basically "Very Hard to Kill!" ... but I think that's probably another post [see Part 3/5]).


        After trying several different combinations of dice ranges for adding counters and target for the Death Blow result, we came up with the following variation of the Hard to Kill! special rule:


        This change will increase the survivability of the Troll ... and even out the fight between the Warriors and the Monster - and more importantly, give the Troll an actual chance to win the fight and not just be slaughtered.


        Let's run through how this would play out for several fights for the Troll against the Minas Tirith Warriors again with several rolls on the table:

        EXAMPLE #1

        Round 1:

        Gondor scores 2 hits on the Troll and rolls once on the table.

        Gondor gets a dice roll of 4. Since there are not any counters on the troll yet this gives a value of 4 on the New Hard to Kill Table - this gives 1 wound counter to the Troll.

        Round 2:

        Gondor scores 4 hits on the Troll so gets to roll twice on the table.

        First roll on the table gives a dice roll of 2. Adding the 1 existing wound counter give a value of 3 on the table ... adding 1 more wound counter ... there are now 2 total counters on the Troll.

        Second roll on the table gives a dice roll of 5. Adding the 2 existing wound counters gives a value of 7 on the table ... adding 2 more wound counters ... there are now 4 total counters on the Troll.

        Round 3:

        Gondor scores 3 hits on the Troll so gets to roll once on the table.

        Gondor gets a dice roll of 2. Adding the 4 existing wound counters give a value of 6 on the table ... adding 2 more wound counters ... there are now 6 total counters on the Troll.

        Round 4:

        Gondor scores 2 hits on the Troll so gets to roll once on the table.

        Gondor gets a dice roll of 3. Adding the 6 existing wound counters give a value of 9 on the table ... adding 3 more wound counters ... there are now 9 total counters on the Troll.

        Round 5:

        Gondor scores 3 hits on the Troll so gets to roll once on the table.

        Gondor gets a dice roll of 6. Adding the 9 existing wound counters give a value of 15 on the table ... delivering the "Death Blow" to the Troll.

        EXAMPLE #2

        Round 1:

        Gondor scores 5 hits on the Troll and rolls twice on the table.

        First roll on the table gives a dice roll of 5. Since there are not any counters on the troll yet this gives a value of 5 on the New Hard to Kill Table - this gives 1 wound counter to the Troll.

        Second roll on the table gives a dice roll of 1. Adding the 1 existing wound counter gives a value of 2 on the table ... this adds no new wound counters ... there are still only 1 counter on the Troll.

        Round 2:

        Gondor scores 1 hit on the Troll so doesn't gets to roll on the table.

        Round 3:

        Gondor scores 3 hits on the Troll so gets to roll once on the table.

        Gondor gets a dice roll of 4. Adding the 1 existing wound counter gives a value of 5 on the table ... adding 1 more wound counter ... there are now 2 total counters on the Troll.

        Round 4:

        Gondor scores 2 hits on the Troll so gets to roll once on the table.

        Gondor gets a dice roll of 6. Adding the 2 existing wound counters gives a value of 8 on the table ... adding 2 more wound counters ... there are now 4 total counters on the Troll.

        Since a natural 6 was rolled, Gondor gets to roll again.

        Second roll on the table gives a dice roll of 6. Adding the 4 existing wound counter gives a value of 10 on the table ... this adds 3 more wound counters ... there are now 7 total counters on the Troll.

        Round 5:

        Gondor scores 2 hits on the Troll so gets to roll once on the table.

        Gondor gets a dice roll of 5. Adding the 7 existing wound counters gives a value of 12 on the table ... delivering the "Death Blow" to the Troll.

        There we have it ... Hopefully this will clear up a lot of the confusion on how the table works and also increase the longevity of the Troll to make the 100 Points that are spent on the Troll more useful.




        LINKS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE HARD TO KILL SERIES

        1. Overview of the Problem [Part 1/5]
        2. Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 2/5]
        3. Very Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 3/5]
        4. Extremely Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 4/5]
        5. Ridiculously Hard to Kill! Rule [Part 5/5]

        POST APPENDIX: WotR H2K Simulator Code - Objective-C


        //
        //  main.m
        //  WotR H2K Simulator
        //
        //  Created by Bairchoro on 11/15/14.
        //  Copyright (c) 2014 Ursa Systems Corportation. All rights reserved.
        //
        #import <Cocoa/Cocoa.h>
        int main(int argc, char *argv[])
        {
            intwoundIterator = 0;
            intnumNewCounters = 0;
            intnumCritCounters = 0;
            inttotalNumCounters = 0;
            intattackScore = 0;
            booldead = false;
            intdiceRoll = 0;
            // H2K Old = 1; VH2K Old = 2; EH2K Old = 3; H2K New = 4; VH2K New = 5; EH2K New = 6;
            inth2kType = 4;

            
            // This sets a seed based on system clock time "pseudorandom".
            longseed = time(NULL);
            srand(seed);
            intquestion[21];

            for(int i=0; i<20; i++) {
                question[i] = rand();
            }
            // End of Seed.

            while(dead == false) {

                // each time a wound is scored, roll a die (1-6) to see the result for the wound
                woundIterator = woundIterator + 1;
                NSLog(@" ");
                NSLog(@"Current woundIterator = %i", woundIterator);
                numNewCounters = 0;
                numCritCounters = 0;
                diceRoll = ((rand()/100%6)+1);
                NSLog(@"Current diceRoll = %i",diceRoll);
                attackScore = diceRoll + totalNumCounters;
                NSLog(@"Attack Score: %i",attackScore);
                // add the number of existing wound counters to the value of the die to get the result

                // CASE 1: Old H2K
                if(h2kType == 1) {
                    if (attackScore <= 1) {
                    }
                    else if (attackScore > 1 && attackScore <= 3) {
                        NSLog(@"gain 1 counter");
                        numNewCounters = 1;
                    }
                    else if (attackScore > 3 && attackScore <= 7) {
                        NSLog(@"gain 2 counters");
                        numNewCounters = 2;
                    }
                    else if (attackScore >= 8) {
                        dead = true;
                        NSLog(@"Model has died!");
                        numNewCounters = diceRoll;

                    }
                }

                 // CASE 4: New H2K
                if(h2kType == 4) {
                    if (attackScore <= 2) {
                    }
                    else if (attackScore > 2 && attackScore <= 5) {
                        NSLog(@"gain 1 counter");
                        numNewCounters = 1;
                    }
                    else if (attackScore > 5 && attackScore <= 8) {
                        NSLog(@"gain 2 counters");
                        numNewCounters = 2;
                    }
                    else if (attackScore > 8 && attackScore <= 11) {
                        NSLog(@"gain 3 counters");
                        numNewCounters = 3;
                    }
                    else if (attackScore >=12) {
                        dead = true;
                        NSLog(@"Model has died!");
                        numNewCounters = diceRoll;

                    }
                }

                if(diceRoll == 6 && dead == false) {
                    // cout<<"You rolled a natural 6 ... you get to re-roll this turn!"<<endl;
                    NSLog(@"You rolled a natural 6 ... you get to re-roll this turn!");
                    int totalCritCounters = totalNumCounters + numNewCounters;
                    //cout<<"Current totalNumCounters = "<<totalNumCounters<<endl;
                    NSLog(@"Current totalNumCounters = %i", totalCritCounters);
                    diceRoll = ((rand()/100%6)+1);
                    //cout<<"Current diceRoll = "<<diceRoll<<endl;
                    NSLog(@"Crit diceRoll = %i", diceRoll);
                    attackScore = diceRoll + totalCritCounters;
                    NSLog(@"Crit Attack Score: %i", attackScore);
                    // add the number of existing wound counters to the value of the die to get the result

                    // CASE 1: Old H2K
                    if (h2kType == 1) {
                        if (attackScore <= 1) {
                        }
                        else if (attackScore > 1 && attackScore <= 3) {
                            numCritCounters = 1;
                        }
                        else if (attackScore > 3 && attackScore <= 7) {
                            numCritCounters = 2;
                        }
                        else if (attackScore >= 8) {
                            dead = true;
                            // cout<<"Model has died!"<<endl;
                            NSLog(@"Model has died!");
                            numCritCounters = diceRoll;
                        }
                    }

                    // CASE 4: New H2K
                    if (h2kType == 4) {
                        if (attackScore <= 2) {
                        }
                        else if (attackScore > 2 && attackScore <= 5) {
                            NSLog(@"gain 1 counter");
                            numCritCounters = 1;
                        }
                        else if (attackScore > 5 && attackScore <= 8) {
                            NSLog(@"gain 2 counters");
                            numCritCounters = 2;
                        }
                        else if (attackScore > 8 && attackScore <= 11) {
                            NSLog(@"gain 3 counters");
                            numCritCounters = 3;
                        }
                        else if (attackScore >=12) {
                            dead = true;
                            // cout<<"Model has died!"<<endl;
                            NSLog(@"Model has died!");
                            numCritCounters = diceRoll;

                            
                        }
                    }
                }

                numNewCounters = numNewCounters + numCritCounters;

                // cout<<"Current numNewCounters = "<<numNewCounters<<endl;
                NSLog(@"Current numNewCounters = %i", numNewCounters);

                // add the number of new counters to the total number of counters on the model
                totalNumCounters = totalNumCounters + numNewCounters;
                //cout<<"Current totalNumCounters = "<<totalNumCounters<<endl;
                NSLog(@"Current totalNumCounters = %i", totalNumCounters);
                // if the original roll of the die was a natural 6, then roll again
                // if the total number of counters is 15 or more - flip dead to true, else continue

            }

            NSLog(@"Number of wounds to kill = %i", woundIterator);
            return0;

            
        }